How do we grade Ryan Pace?

As we sit on NFL draft eve and I read my 5,000th mock draft (and edge on doing my 1,000th top ten mock myself), I really have been thinking a lot about the Ryan Pace era of the Bears.  Like most die hard Bears fans, I'm a homer at heart.  I've been able to talk myself into almost any move the Bears have made...other than Shea McClellin and Marc Trestman.  But the Pace pick was a shocking move.  The Bears tend to go ultra conservative in every front office move, usually because they don't always want to pay coaches and front office staff.  (side note, they aren't cheap when it comes to players and a lot of this coach pay got fixed starting in the Lovie era).  Pace was 37, a relative unknown.  Chris Ballard seemed to be the most logical choice, and rumors that he demanded too much from the Bears flooded the internet minutes after the choice of Pace.

Pace wasn't ready for the job, but that's also pretty standard for all first time GM's.  To go from Director of Pro Scouting or College scouting to GM isn't a baby step.  It's an elevator from the first floor to the observation deck at Sears Tower.   The Bears thought they'd ease him into the situation by hiring John Fox, who will always be the Accorsi decision to me.  Now I will argue that the first offseason, which was certainly a need vs best player available experience, was more on Fox than Pace.  But over time Pace seemed to grab more and more control, culminating with the the 2017 offseason and draft.  That year was the ultimate of roller coasters, with an outstanding draft and a below average Free Agency period.

If we try to define what Ryan Pace has done well to date, I would point at RB, OL, DL, and LB.  His continued focus on drafting young RB's has paid dividends, his moves to lock up Sitton and Massie (who started slow but has played much better since) and draft Whitehair were big moves.  Defensively, UFA RRH was a wonderful find.  His deals for Hicks and Unrein, who was so unheralded despite all he did, were incredible values.  At LB, McPhee/Acho/ Trevathan/Freeman/Kwit were good values as well, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt with Freeman since he performed at such a high level when he was out there.

But he's struggled with a few things as well, and that's a concern.  I'd argue the most glaring weakness is in player value.  Not tagging Alshon, thinking that Glennon is a starting caliber QB, refusing to pay Gilmore over $14 per...then tagging and paying Fuller the same amount a year later.   As a former Pro Scout guy, all of those moves have been questionable at best.  When you factor in the tendering players like Cam and Callahan at a level without compensation, it gets even more concerning.  Especially when the amount is only $1m more.

His drafts have also been a area of intrigue.  He's drafted high ceiling guys who need a ton of development in the first round in White and Floyd.  I'll skip Mitch as QB tends to blow up any sense of value.   His ignoring of wide receivers, which has been a position of need since
a portion of concern because that, too, has been a need for this team.  Only increased because the one FA he signed to truly help the pass rush was injured quite often.

There's a number that sticks in my head that doesn't make any sense.  And that is he's gone into drafts with 22 picks, and he's drafted 20 players.  I get that you give up for a QB, but he's not made enough moves to stockpile picks on a team that needed a massive infusion of young talent.  As someone who came in talking about how you build through the draft, he hasn't.  He's built through FA more than the draft, and that's not a positive thing.

Last years draft was a positive, and if Shaheen develops into what they think that can be a home run.  But you'll notice that most of the positives are if:  If Whitehair returns to a better rookie year form, if Leonard Floyd finally becomes a double digit sack guy, if Kevin White can become healthy, if Nagy can truly unlock the potential of Mitch.   I get that the draft is always about potential, but Pace is a guy that seems to get infatuated and locked on a guy and drafts him regardless of value.

Thankfully this past free agency period was a very solid move for him.  Now that he's got a better coach who seems to have a system and player profile, we could see a better draft.  But I'm still concerned that Ryan Pace is over his head.  This draft will tell me everything I need to know.  And my fingers are crossed that starting tomorrow, Pace really starts to build us up.