Statistically what to expect from the Nagy-O?

Again, as most people who see my tweets...I'm slightly obsessed with the numbers of the NFL.  It's not that I'm a numbers above all else kind of guy, there still has to be a personal side to it where you really watch what's happening.  But I do believe that numbers can offset a few things:  Guys who look great but don't produce (*cough* Josh Allen*) and for proper setting of expectations for what to see.  And that's why I want to focus on the numbers right now.

As I tweeted the other day, 9 guys rushed for 1,000 yards last season.  Which is a number that's been in decline since roughly 2010, when 17 guys did.  Over that same time, the average yard per carry went from 5.1 to 4.3 for the thousand yard rushers. The carries are roughly the same (276 vs 273), but the yardage dropped from 1401 to 1162.    I point this out because Jordan Howards use:  An average of 17 rushes a game for 70 yards a game is pretty standard for what the other guys did.  Now his use in the passing game had him with the lowest reception total of the group at 23 (Fournette and Anderson were at 36 and 28), but that is not something that I expect to change even with Nagy in at offense.

While passing numbers haven't necessarily taken off, the amount of 4,000 yard passers has increased from 5 to 8 in the same span, the yards per attempt stat has seen an increase.  In 2010, the 4k passers averaged 7.5 yards per attempt.  In 2018, that number moved to 7.8.  Every guy who threw for over 4k yards in 2018 averaged over 7.5 yards per attempt, only 2 of them did in 2010.  What does this mean?  Teams are getting deeper in their throws while defenses are doing a better job of slowing the run.  It's important to note for balance, but also lends itself to further inspection.

I throw out these numbers because we all expect big things from Mitchell Trubisky this year in Nagy's offense.  And Mitchell will be the engine that makes that go.  We expect "THE leap"!  But we need to define a few things at first:  What "THE leap" was for Wentz and Goff last year, and how that correlates to the Chiefs version of the Andy Reid offense.  Lastly I'll throw in some numbers on what the elusive 4,000 yard passing season would look for Mitch...which still would be the first ever in team history.

Let's take a little look at the numbers of the two guys who Trubisky is most expected to emulate in year 2

Trubisky
Year 1:  196-330 2193 yards, 6.6 YPA and 59.4% completion percentage.  2.1% TD/2.1% INT
Average pass yards in air/attempt:  8.3 Average pass yards in air/completed:  6.6

Goff
Year 1:  112-205, 1089 yards, 5.3 YPA and 54.6% completion percentage.  2.4% TD/3.4% INT
Average pass yards in air/attempt:  8  Average pass yards in air/completed: 5.6
Year 2:  296-477, 3804 yards, 8.0 YPA and 62.1% completion percentage   5.9% TD/1.5% INT
Average pass yards in air/attempt:  8.5  Average pass yards in air/completed: 6.4

Wentz
Year 1:  379-607, 3782 yards, 6.2 YPA and 62.4% completion percentage.  2.6%TD/2.3% INT
Average pass yards in air/attempt:  8.5 yards  Average pass yards in air/completed:  6
Year 2:  265-440, 3296 yards, 7.5 YPA and 60.2% completion percentage.  7.5%TD/1.6% INT
Average pass yards in air/attempt:  10.2  Average pass yards in air/completed:  7.9

Smith
5 year average:  317-507, 3521 yards, 7 YPA and a 62.6% completion percentage.  4.1%TD/1.3%INT

The main number that should jump out is  YPA and the completion percentage (though surprisingly Wentz saw a decline there).   We see that these players started to attempt deeper passes (.5 yards for Goff, 1.7 yards for Wentz) and an uptick in the average yards in the air completed.  How does this correlate to the Bears last year?   They had only 30 passing plays of over 20 yards (31st in league) and 4 over 40 (tied for 30th).  Without a deep threat or a consistent receiving threat, the Bears just couldn't push the ball down field.  As for the others, the Rams had 57 and 13, the Eagles had 43 and 9, and the Chiefs had 52 and 13.  Simply put, the vertical passing game

Another interesting stat to look at is 1st down completion percentage.  This tends to be where QB's have one of their higher completion percentages because the entire playbook tends to be open, and there's less of a chance of knowing what kind of play is run.

Goff:  62.18%
Wentz:  59.65%
Smith:  69.41%
Trubisky:  56.31%

Again, Wentz is an interesting off number because his number is low.  And shockingly his 3rd and 10+ numbers was extremely good at over 76%.  With more at his disposal, and a deeper playbook and more weapons, we should start to see this increase as well for Mitchell.  This in turn should lead to a lot better 2nd and 3rd down situations, which in turn should help keep drives alive.

If we just look at all of that, what should the season look like?  Three different things.

This is important because the other 3 teams all averaged about 1000 plays on the season, or roughly 70 more than what we saw from Chicago last year.   While the Bears were 31st with 934 offensive plays, the Chiefs had 984, the Rams had 1000, and the Eagles had 1073.  Tempo will be much faster with a deeper passing game to also help.  Remember that new age ball control is really trying to build on quick striking offense and getting the ball back quick.

Now how about the run game?  It's important here to focus more on the Chiefs and Eagles than the Rams.  The Chiefs averaged about 400 rushes per year for the 5 years of Reid/Nagy offense, on par with what Chicago did. Now 2 of those years were with Jamaal Charles and 1 with Kareem Hunt, both of which are different types of backs than Howard.  And that's where the Eagles come in.  Everyone looks at them as a passing offense, but because of their play calling and tempo they still managed to run the ball 473 times last year.  And none of those RB's were much of a pass catching threat, with the top 3 combining for 28 receptions.  Keeping some level of balance is important.

Lastly, when you factor in either injury or sitting out the last game, over 500 attempts seems to be about average for these guys, which is 30 more than the Bears had last season. But we should also see numbers increase for the amount of plays to run because of better overall talent and much better play calling. 

Mitchell Trubisky
Year 2:  322 for 520, 3900 yards, 7.5YPA, 62% completion percentage, 5.5%TD/1.5%INT (28TD, 8INT).  35 sacks

Rushing offense
450 attempts, 1890 yards, 4.2 YPA, 13 TD

If you combine these numbers, this is a season of 1005 plays in total.  This would be an average of about 360 yards per game on offense.  Statistically this season would be the best passing season in Bears history, and would be 1 TD away from tying Erik Kramers team record of 29 in 1996.  So you can see that this also feels so much like a stretch because of how unusual it would be.  But if you look at either the Chiefs, Goff or Wentz, these numbers do line up quite well.  The run game numbers are higher because we have more of a work horse back type, and we will probably go through stretches of grinding it out to take advantage of him.

Why don't I have individual numbers?  Because there is no continuity in the offense from last year, with only Cohen and Howard still being here and being focal points.  Allen Robinson is returning from injury, Trey Burton is being projected to take a huge step up from his catch total last year, and Anthony Miller is going to make some impact.  Side note to remember here, on average only 4 rookie WR's a year catch over 50 passes in their rookie season.  There's just simply no way to build those numbers out without watching these guys in some preseason action, and most likely 2-3 weeks of regular season action. 

Lastly, what would it take for a 4k season?  Mitch would need to get his completion percentage to 64% (only Philip Rivers got over 4k at less than that).   That would result in an additional 10 passes being completed.  We'd also need to see his yards per attempt get to around 7.7 or more, which does also seem plausible given all the other numbers. 

Fun to think about!

How do we grade Ryan Pace?

As we sit on NFL draft eve and I read my 5,000th mock draft (and edge on doing my 1,000th top ten mock myself), I really have been thinking a lot about the Ryan Pace era of the Bears.  Like most die hard Bears fans, I'm a homer at heart.  I've been able to talk myself into almost any move the Bears have made...other than Shea McClellin and Marc Trestman.  But the Pace pick was a shocking move.  The Bears tend to go ultra conservative in every front office move, usually because they don't always want to pay coaches and front office staff.  (side note, they aren't cheap when it comes to players and a lot of this coach pay got fixed starting in the Lovie era).  Pace was 37, a relative unknown.  Chris Ballard seemed to be the most logical choice, and rumors that he demanded too much from the Bears flooded the internet minutes after the choice of Pace.

Pace wasn't ready for the job, but that's also pretty standard for all first time GM's.  To go from Director of Pro Scouting or College scouting to GM isn't a baby step.  It's an elevator from the first floor to the observation deck at Sears Tower.   The Bears thought they'd ease him into the situation by hiring John Fox, who will always be the Accorsi decision to me.  Now I will argue that the first offseason, which was certainly a need vs best player available experience, was more on Fox than Pace.  But over time Pace seemed to grab more and more control, culminating with the the 2017 offseason and draft.  That year was the ultimate of roller coasters, with an outstanding draft and a below average Free Agency period.

If we try to define what Ryan Pace has done well to date, I would point at RB, OL, DL, and LB.  His continued focus on drafting young RB's has paid dividends, his moves to lock up Sitton and Massie (who started slow but has played much better since) and draft Whitehair were big moves.  Defensively, UFA RRH was a wonderful find.  His deals for Hicks and Unrein, who was so unheralded despite all he did, were incredible values.  At LB, McPhee/Acho/ Trevathan/Freeman/Kwit were good values as well, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt with Freeman since he performed at such a high level when he was out there.

But he's struggled with a few things as well, and that's a concern.  I'd argue the most glaring weakness is in player value.  Not tagging Alshon, thinking that Glennon is a starting caliber QB, refusing to pay Gilmore over $14 per...then tagging and paying Fuller the same amount a year later.   As a former Pro Scout guy, all of those moves have been questionable at best.  When you factor in the tendering players like Cam and Callahan at a level without compensation, it gets even more concerning.  Especially when the amount is only $1m more.

His drafts have also been a area of intrigue.  He's drafted high ceiling guys who need a ton of development in the first round in White and Floyd.  I'll skip Mitch as QB tends to blow up any sense of value.   His ignoring of wide receivers, which has been a position of need since
a portion of concern because that, too, has been a need for this team.  Only increased because the one FA he signed to truly help the pass rush was injured quite often.

There's a number that sticks in my head that doesn't make any sense.  And that is he's gone into drafts with 22 picks, and he's drafted 20 players.  I get that you give up for a QB, but he's not made enough moves to stockpile picks on a team that needed a massive infusion of young talent.  As someone who came in talking about how you build through the draft, he hasn't.  He's built through FA more than the draft, and that's not a positive thing.

Last years draft was a positive, and if Shaheen develops into what they think that can be a home run.  But you'll notice that most of the positives are if:  If Whitehair returns to a better rookie year form, if Leonard Floyd finally becomes a double digit sack guy, if Kevin White can become healthy, if Nagy can truly unlock the potential of Mitch.   I get that the draft is always about potential, but Pace is a guy that seems to get infatuated and locked on a guy and drafts him regardless of value.

Thankfully this past free agency period was a very solid move for him.  Now that he's got a better coach who seems to have a system and player profile, we could see a better draft.  But I'm still concerned that Ryan Pace is over his head.  This draft will tell me everything I need to know.  And my fingers are crossed that starting tomorrow, Pace really starts to build us up.